Publications tagged with Forecasting
Published:
Publications tagged with "Forecasting"
- DetailsDi Bonito, L. P., Campanile, L., Napolitano, E., Iacono, M., Portolano, A., & Di Natale, F. (2023). Analysis of a marine scrubber operation with a combined analytical/AI-based method [Article]. Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 195, 613–623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cherd.2023.06.006
Abstract
This paper describes the performances of a marine SO2 absorption scrubber installed onboard a large Ro-Ro cargo ship. The study is based on the reconstruction of an extensive dataset from one-year continuous monitoring of the scrubber’s performances and operating conditions. The dataset has been interpreted with a conventional analytical, physical-mathematical, model for absorbers’ rating and its combination with an Artificial Intelligence (AI) one. First, the analytical model has been used to provide a deterministic mathematical framework for the interpretation and the prediction of the scrubber’s performances in terms of absorbed SO2 molar flow and SO2 concentration at the scrubber exit. Then, data mining and AI techniques have been applied to develop an Artificial Neural Network able to predict the error between the actual SO2 concentration at the scrubber exit and the corresponding analytical model predictions. The final result is a combined model providing superior robustness and accuracy in the prediction of the scrubber performance while preserving a rationale for process design and operation. This interesting outcome suggests that the development of combined, or hybrid, Analytical/AI models can be a reliable and cost-effective way to improve chemical engineers’ ability to design and control marine scrubbers, as well as other chemical equipment. © 2023 Institution of Chemical Engineers - DetailsCampanile, L., Cantiello, P., Iacono, M., Lotito, R., Marulli, F., & Mastroianni, M. (2021). Applying Machine Learning to Weather and Pollution Data Analysis for a Better Management of Local Areas: The Case of Napoli, Italy [Conference paper]. International Conference on Internet of Things, Big Data and Security, IoTBDS - Proceedings, 2021-April, 354–363. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85135227609&partnerID=40&md5=5a7c117fa01d0ba8d779b0e092bc0f63
Abstract
Local pollution is a problem that affects urban areas and has effects on the quality of life and on health conditions. In order to not develop strict measures and to better manage territories, the national authorities have applied a vast range of predictive models. Actually, the application of machine learning has been studied in the last decades in various cases with various declination to simplify this problem. In this paper, we apply a regression-based analysis technique to a dataset containing official historical local pollution and weather data to look for criteria that allow forecasting critical conditions. The methods was applied to the case study of Napoli, Italy, where the local environmental protection agency manages a set of fixed monitoring stations where both chemical and meteorological data are recorded. The joining of the two raw dataset was overcome by the use of a maximum inclusion strategy as performing the joining action with”outer” mode. Among the four different regression models applied, namely the Linear Regression Model calculated with Ordinary Least Square (LN-OLS), the Ridge regression Model (Ridge), the Lasso Model (Lasso) and Supervised Nearest Neighbors Regression (KNN), the Ridge regression model was found to better perform with an R2 (Coefficient of Determination) value equal to 0.77 and low value for both MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), equal to 0.12 and 0.04 respectively. © 2021 by SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, Lda.